Eurovision 2024: Semi-Final 1 odds to qualify for the final (2024)

Marlinken

4 days ago

Qs: Croatia, Cyprus, Ukraine, Ireland, Australia, Slovenia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Azerbaijan.

Shock NQs: Serbia, Luxembourg, Finland.

Non shock NQs: Iceland, Moldova.

OK, just heard Poland live. Replace Poland with Serbia, Luxembourg or Finland.

BiCHOTA

6 days ago

Owendy

6 days ago

6 days ago

jackesc

7 days ago

Kappi

7 days ago

My (controversial?) Qs and NQs

Qualifying: Ukraine, Croatia, Finland, Poland, Cyprus, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Serbia, Slovenia.

Not qualifying: Iceland, Australia, Ireland, Moldova, Portugal, Azerbaijan.

Note: If I pick a song for not qualifying, that doesn’t mean I dislike the song. And the other way around. For example I like Azerbaijan but I think it will not sadly make it to the Finals.

Despicable Annie

7 days ago

Liutauras

7 days ago

Consider yourself killed!!

so, what is the problem, if you don’t like it, just go to the next song you like

Mike

8 days ago

Dane

8 days ago

Oh no Dane! I thought we were friends!! I rather love Australia’s entry… Are you still rooting for Saba? I still love her song but I wish she’d up the performance of it. What do you think?

They’ll probably end last in the semi with those vocals and little budget lol

Everyone

8 days ago

Dida

8 days ago

...

8 days ago

Doris

8 days ago

Countries such as Romania, Turkey, Hungary, Slovakia, Andorra have left and of course Russia and Belarus where removed so that’s why there’s less countries that don’t Q.

Paul Sorenson

8 days ago

jackesc

8 days ago

Fatima

8 days ago

8 days ago

This is how I rank it in my opinion (Taking out the big 5 performing)

1. Sweden
2. Serbia
3. Lithuania
4. Cyprus
5. Ukraine
6. Moldova
7. Azerbaijan
8. Finland
9. Iceland
10. Poland
11. Netherlands
12. Croatia
13. Portugal
14. Ireland
15. Australia

BadWoolfGirl

8 days ago

I just listened to the official semi final 1 playlist on the Eurovision youtube in the running order and this is how I ranked the songs (minus the UK, Germany and Sweden).

1.Lithuania
2.Ukraine
3.Portugal
4.Croatia
5.Luxembourg
6.Serbia
7.Slovenia
8.Cyprus
9.Poland
10.Australia
11.Finland
12.Ireland
13.Azerbaijan
14.Iceland
15.Moldova

Now this is just my personal ranking, don’t read into it as a prediction.

Teddi

8 days ago

Slovenian singer said she will be performing like in the music video, NUDE, with body paint. If naked body doesn’t help, nothing will lol

Baby Carbonara

9 days ago

Marcin

9 days ago

Iceland and Moldova will qualify. Both artists already have qualifying experience from much harder semi-finals. They will easily qualify in such a weak year.

Hopefully Azerbaijan and Poland joins them instead of crap from Croatia, Finland, Cyprus, Luxembourg, and Lithuania.

Definite non qualifiers Ireland and Australia

The rest are irrelevant and add no value to the contest.

These kind of crap comments do not add any value to this comment section

It is rude to call some songs crap just because YOU don’t like it. Be respectful to the artists and songwriters!

AMAAN STORM

9 days ago

I never understood how people can make their mind up about what is and isn’t qualifying when they haven’t even seen the staging, or the live performances with the staging. That usually makes it pretty obvious who will and won’t go through.

I’ll reserve my judgements until I see the live semi final performances.

That said, I would love for there to be a handful of shocking results going in to the finals, with Ireland, Australia and Iceland all qualifying! That really would set the cat amongst the pigeons!

Leo M

9 days ago

Definite qualifiers: Croatia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Finland

Likely qualifiers: Cyprus, Poland

Borderline qualifiers: Serbia, Slovenia, Australia, Ireland, Portugal, Luxembourg

Definite non qualifiers: Iceland, Azerbaijan, Moldova

I wouldn’t rule Azerbaijan out too early. If you look at the running order of SF1, the big favorites are all in the first half so the countries that are a bit “under” will probably suffer from this. I think of Poland. Azerbaijan is in the 2nd half between Moldova and Australia, 2 songs that will do very poorly imo. I wouldn’t be surprised if Azerbaijan finds a way to sneak in the final instead of Poland (or even Ireland but I hope not).

Réi

9 days ago

Another Proud Eurosimp

9 days ago

It’s too dark and aggressive for an average viewers I think

Bookies are basing their odds on this sites over all votes and YouTube watches…. Neither have as yet predicted a winner. Ireland will qualify

Erret2

9 days ago

Héctor

9 days ago

Luxembourg has dream position and i believe girl singing for Cyprus is from Australia (and Australia votes here). Wouldn’t rule them out.

Devito

9 days ago

i put youtube on autoplay while cleaning the house, veronika is always among the chosen ones

I think your house woulda been spotless if you’ve put just Rim Tim Tagi Dim on repeat.

I never skip until after the contest. Experience tells me that some songs just ‘click’ after multiple listens. And if they don’t, that makes the songs around them seem even better.

Vjera Brdar

9 days ago

Paul Sorenson

9 days ago

You also have to look at the fact that only the countries in the same Semifinal can vote.
I still dont get this voting rule… Why not everybody can vote for both Semifinals?

In the first semi also the UK, Sweden and Germany can vote, so more northern.
In the second semi it’s France, Italy and Spain.

With the countries in Semi 1, I think Ireland has a good chance to qualify.

Azerbedyan and Cyprus would have a hard time now, but would probably qualify if they were together with the countries in the second Semi.

ATLANTIC

9 days ago

Im so fab

9 days ago

Fatima

9 days ago

You might not like the song and that’s fine. It’s going to cruise into the final. Casual viewers will vote for it in huge numbers.

ISAAC

9 days ago

My 10 Qualifiers:

Lithuania
Croatia
Serbia
Ukraine
Slovenia
Portugal
Luxembourg
Poland
Finland
Ireland

My NQ:

Cyprus
Azerbaijan
Australia
Iceland
Moldova

jercle

9 days ago

I don’t understand why people are so quick to write off Moldova. It’s not a great song and I agree it shouldn’t go to the final, but Moldova has a knack of staging its songs well and getting the televotes in. Plus, with no Romanian entry this year, the Romanian diaspora will give their votes to Moldova.

And don’t forget, Natalia qualified from the 28-country “semi from hell” in 2007, also with a song that doesn’t deserve to qualify.

Fight was fire. It was so worth qualifying. And it would still qualify today.

The Romanian Diapsora will have to compete with the rest of the world which will regard other entries much more highly. The most Moldova can get is 4 points from them.

I agree, her staging is prettt good actually she has five other people on stage with her who all look similar to her and are singing and playing violin and you don’t know which is the real Natalia until she walks out from among them at the end

jercle

9 days ago

Luxembourg’s average song certainly doesn’t deserve to qualify, but the closing slot in SF1 and a wave of nostalgia should see them safe.

If Ireland doesn’t qualify, then they’ll revert back to the safest (by which I mean dull) songs possible. Prepare for years of Louis Walsh boybands singing dated ballads.

Alex

9 days ago

FizzPunk

9 days ago

Benji

9 days ago

Bandido

9 days ago

No, I think the way Tali switches so seamlessly from French to English is memorable.

Anonymous91

9 days ago

Mike Ahern

9 days ago

*the live performances

I think you are right, Mike. If your vocals aren’t on point and you are in the first half, you won’t make it, no matter how flashy the video. Case in point, Reiley.

Anonymous91

9 days ago

110% sure qualifier: Croatia (nothing can go wrong for them this year)

as for the rest i really have no idea

Nothing can go wrong, other than a singer who can’t sing and has no on-stage charisma.

PP77

9 days ago

Robert

9 days ago

And also it doesn’t matter that Serbia is in 2nd spot. Rest of the world starts voting a day before and they have a huge diaspora. Plus voting starts at the beginning of the show. And Croatia and Slovenia are in their semi. Serbia is one of the most sure qualifiers.

Isabella

9 days ago

My personal qualifiers (don’t really care about the rest of them tho)

#1 Croatia
#2 Ukraine
#3 Finland
#4 Cyprus
#5 Portugal
#6 Serbia
#7 Slovenia
#8 Lithuania
#9 Ireland
#10 Australia

Mine:- 1, Iceland:- it’s like the music for a tampon commercial, love Hera bjork and there is no way this is not finishing top ten. 2, croatia:- good song and addictive, singer can’t sing live and creepy staging but this is a song contest so have based it on the song. 3, Serbia:- stand out singer and vocals uplift the song. I don’t know anyone who doesn’t like this. Serbia had a amazing national final with so many awesome acts but they got it right. 4, Poland:- good song from Poland, doesn’t tick all of the boxes but will have…Read more »

alfie23

9 days ago

Liam Lindsay

9 days ago

You make very convincing arguments for the Qualifiers. Ireland certainly, Moldova possibly, Australia perhaps the shakiest of the three.

You made 100% wrong predition and description of Serbian entry lol They are such a contender, song stands out so much, and Lithuania isn’t overshadowing it but the other way around. Cheers

Poland – will get at least 4 x 12 or 4 x 10 from Ireland, Norway, UK and Ukraine televote. The remaining points will go to Lithuania. Poland a certain qualifier whether you like the song or not. The 12 from Croatia and few other bits and pieces will see Serbia through just like last year.

Fred

9 days ago

Very nice analysis. Sure, the ranking of yours might not be 100% accurate, but it is more or less what will probably happen. The only exception is Moldova, because I think they are always strong with the televote, always make a good staging, Natalia will not flop vocally, and both choreography and audio quality will be totaly different from what we have seen at their national final, so it might qualify as a result. Btw, I don’t like Moldovan song, I’m not a fan, just giving my 5 cents as an addition to this great analysis.